The worth of your decisions will determine your life. Our conclusion influence how well we make use of our talents, efforts, and resources. Better decision-making improves our capability to solve huge, more complex problems — quickly and reliably. In this increasingly difficult, disruptive, and uncertain period of human history — the best decision-makers will innovate, succeed and leave the rest behind. We should also be confident in our ability to rely on clever individuals to make sound judgments and deliver the best solutions to tough challenges. After all, they are experts. Yet, we all know that this isn’t always the case.
Recent political events and elections throughout the world, particularly in Europe and America, have demonstrated how unreliable expert forecasts and judgments may be. Why do smart people make stupid decisions? And, more importantly, how can you prevent making poor choices? Join ahead and get started.
Creatures and educated humans are a match made in heaven:
. Tetlock asked the experts to forecast the likelihood of certain events occurring during this research, such as whether the dot-com bubble would burst. Then he had to look at how their reasoning processes led to these findings. Tetlock came to a humorous conclusion after 20 years of gathering and examining 82,361 expert projections. Tetlock claims that the average expert is not much better at predicting the future than a dart-throwing chimp, Tetlock said, implying that most of these experts would have made more accurate forecasts if they had made random guesses.
Fortunately, a few experts were correct in their knowing. These specialists had a unique perspective on problem-solving, decision-making, and thinking. They made modest projections instead of succumbing to know it all mentality. But, only after a thorough examination of a wide range of outside facts and information. Uncertainty and complexity were not a problem for them. They were willing to consider ideas that contradicted their preconceptions and prejudices. In this study, however, the experts with the highest knowledge were the least trustworthy on average.
Even after analyzing the evidence, they could not admit they were incorrect. Despite the availability of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, people were overconfident in their beliefs and refused to change their views.
This form of prejudice, with which we all battle, has a scientific reason. But, before we get into that, I had wanted to pose a brief inquiry and task to you to demonstrate my argument.
Groupthink asserts, “I’m Correct Because I Know I Am”:
A dad and son are involved in an automobile accident and taken to the hospital. The dad passes away. As the kid has to take into the operating room, the surgeon explains, I can not operate on this youngster as he is my son. What makes you think this is possible? In a moment, I will provide the solution to this query. Now, let us fair return to the question of why smart people make stupid decisions. Several mental mistakes influence human decision-making, but confirmation bias is by far the most significant. Confirmation bias describes our propensity to seek out and favor data that supports our pre-existing ideas while disregarding or dismissing information that contradicts them. It is for a good purpose.
We become uneasy when if we have faced with ideas or information that challenge our current beliefs. To relieve the stress and suffering, we try to re-confirm our previous notions, even if they are still inaccurate. Do you think anything like that never occurs to you? And get back to the question I posed before.
was your response? If you can not come up with an appropriate response, do not be too hard on yourself. Your ability to find the correct answer has to be hampered by confirmation bias. And, in case you are interested, the proper response is simple: the boys’ mother is the surgeon. In retrospect, this seems apparent, yet you likely disregarded the option of a female surgeon instinctively.
Instead, you looked for answers to the problem, but you stuck to your conviction that the surgeon was a man. I am sure you can understand how confirmation bias influences our judgment abilities and can lead to blunders.
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It limits the data we can use to make judgments. It causes a bias in how we come to know and alters our memories. It is why intelligent people make poor choices. The more information you have, the more prone you are to fall prey to groupthink and dismiss opposing ideas.
we become closed-minded, we are more likely to make poor judgments than someone with considerably less information. How can you effectively counteract your confirmation biases and prevent making incorrect selections now that we have talked about it?
