Unter meinen Freunden bin ich als Sportoptimist aus Minnesota bekannt. Ich bin die Art von Person, die, wenn es am Ende der NFL-Saison ist und die Wikinger eine 11%ige Chance haben, es in die Playoffs zu schaffen, WENN die Wikinger die Packers in Lambeau schlagen, das Washington Football Team die Eagles schlägt, UND Die schrecklichen, tankenden Texaner schlagen die Niners, ich bin voll dabei, diese Szenarien zu verfolgen.
Nächste Woche klingt so, als würde es einen Marathon von Verhandlungssitzungen geben, während die MLB und ihre Eigentümer und die MLB Players Association daran arbeiten, Unterschiede in ihren CBA-Vorschlägen auszubügeln. Wenn sich die Dinge jedoch nicht wirklich verbessern, sehen wir uns möglicherweise die Realität einer verkürzten regulären Saison an. Aber könnte eine verkürzte Saison an mehreren Fronten gut für die Twins sein? Hier ist ein optimistischer Blick auf eine verkürzte Saison.
1. Kleinere Stichprobengröße
Eine der Wahrheiten des Baseballs ist, dass sich die meisten Dinge in einer Theorie namens „Regression Towards the Mean“ bis zum Ende der Saison in ihren natürlichen Zustand einpendeln. Bei allen Sportarten ist sicherlich etwas Glück im Spiel. Im Baseball und seiner regulären Saison mit 162 Spielen sind die meisten Dinge jedoch auf lange Sicht durchschnittlich, einschließlich Schlagdurchschnitt, Pitching-Leistung und Siege für ein Team. Aber was passiert, wenn die Saison kurz genug ist, dass die Dinge nicht zu diesem Mittelwert zurückkehren können? Was ist, wenn die Zwillinge heiß anfangen und dann einfach heiß bleiben?
Die Führung der Zwillinge hat behauptet, dass sie davon ausgehen, dass sie 2022 wettbewerbsfähig sein werden, obwohl sie José Berríos bei der MLB-Handelsfrist in der vergangenen Saison an die Toronto Blue Jays verkauft und vor Beginn der Sperrung keine auffälligen Free-Agent-Starting-Pitcher verfolgt haben (das tun wir so gut wie nie). Ich sage nicht, dass ich nicht davon ausgehe, dass die Twins in dieser Saison konkurrenzfähig sein werden, aber unser Lieblings-Ballclub hat nach Ende der Sperrung sicherlich einiges zu tun, einschließlich der dringenden Notwendigkeit, zwei Startkrüge, einen Start-Shortstop und eine Verspätung zu verpflichten -Inning-Entlaster.
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